地域ごとに差別化した戦略がなければ、畜産だけで地球環境の限界を超える可能性がある

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論文概要

畜産は環境十全性 environmental integrity を保護するうえで大きな課題となっている。本研究では、1995年から2022年までの畜産業に関する環境フットプリントを10項目について包括的に分析し、2030年までの予測を加えて、それらを地球環境の限界（プラネタリーバウンダリー planetary boundary）*1と比較する。畜産業に関連する温室効果ガス排出・土地利用・水利用・粒子状物質生成・生物化学的循環を定量化した。

その結果、畜産業は、それのみの単独でも地球環境の限界に対して重大な問題を生み出しており、2030年までにこれらの限界のいくつかを脅かす可能性があることがわかった。シナリオを用いた予測では、すべての国が画一的に同じ戦略をとることは最適ではないことが明らかになった。

逆に、地域ごとに差別化した戦略によって、先進諸国では食肉の消費をEat-Lancetダイエット*2に合わせるとともに、開発途上国では生産効率の改善に注力していくことが、地球全体での畜産による環境フットプリントを削減するために最適であった。

これらの知見は、畜産業が環境に及ぼす影響を効率的に緩和し、持続可能な慣行を確保するうえでは政策措置と地域戦略におけるターゲットを明確にする必要があることを強く示唆している。

*1 人類にとって安全な活動領域となり得る地球環境の限界　*2 プラネタリーヘルスダイエットとも呼ばれ、果物や野菜など加工度の低い植物性食品の摂取を重視し、魚や肉、乳製品の摂取は控えめにする食事法。

Chaohui Li, Prajal Pradhan, Xudong Wu, Zhi Li, Jingyu Liu, Klaus Hubacek , Guoqian Chen

2024/09/14

Livestock sector can threaten planetary boundaries without regionally differentiated strategies

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122444

動物の未来-FACTSへ戻る